TAWOMG - Sant Jordi

Dear Friends,

Last Wednesday was Saint George's day. He is the patron saint of Catalonia and his day is celebrated in a unique way: for Sant Jordi men give a rose to women and women give a book to men, meaning that they care for each other. Although it is not a bank holiday, thousands of people go out and crowd the streets of Catalonia's cities. It is a big popular event. Everywhere you find stands selling books or roses. Ten per cent of all books sales in Catalonia happen this day. Writers flock to places like Barcelona to promote and autograph their books. Friends get together, there is a party mood all around. That is probably the nicest day to be in Catalonia, although a Catalan may say any day is a nice day to be there and he wouldn't be completely wrong.

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Being in Sant Jordi's mood, last week I finished to read two books that I bought during the trip to Oceania and Asia. The first one was Peter Carey's "30 Days in Sydney". It is a nostalgic account of the city's history and the way of life of the Sydneysiders. It is a good book to read both before going there for the first time or after being there. If you have never been to Sydney it will make you dream of it. If you have just been there, it is great to follow the author's descriptions of places and the explanations how things are and why they are that way. You finish the book with the taste that Sydney is a world class city and one of the most beautifully located metropolis of the planet. Definitely worth more than one visit, even though it is so far away from almost anyplace you can think of.

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The second book I bought in Hong Kong: Michael Backman's "Asia Future Shock". The author is a very well known business writer with a long experience about business in Asia. He writes about the main changes that are under way in various Asian countries and the risks and opportunities that come along with these changes. Some of the figures and facts that he describes are amazing and give us a taste of the role the region is going to play during this century. Among the most important changes that we are witnessing in the different Asian countries, maybe the population development is the least known. One the one hand there are countries whose population is already shrinking, like Japan. Today it has 127 million inhabitants and in the next decades it may well go down to less than 110 million. South Korea also has a population that is getting old very fast and that may see a drop in a near future. On the other hand there are countries like India or Pakistan that have a young population and that continue to grow at a fast pace. By 2030 India may have 1,5 billion people and will probably be the biggest country on earth.

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China is a special case. Although Backman writes it will also have 1,5 billion people, other authors quote different projections for the future. To a large extent, the development of the Chinese population will depend on the one child policy. During the past thirty years it has had a huge impact reducing the total fertility rate in China and the population growth rate. However, this kind of policy is unsustainable in the long run. In case it is kept for more than one generation, it results in dramatic reductions of population, due to the "four-two-one" effect: each new generation replaces only half the existing number of people in the previous generation. Right now the first children of the one child policy are adults, in the age of marrying and having a family. In case they only have one child, one day in fifty to eighty years the total Chinese population may drop by hundreds of millions.

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Another amazing development in Asia is the imbalance between the number of males and females in China and India. In the year 2030 it is expected that the male population will exceed the female one in about 250 million. The social causes for this imbalance are in itself a reason for concern. On top of it, one can imagine the social impact it may have in these countries. As a secondary effect, it may result in a change in both the immigration rate (either young men leaving their countries to marry abroad or marrying abroad and bringing their wives to their home country) or the population growth itself Some men will remain single because they can't find a woman to marry.

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Right now I am reading Jeffrey Sachs' "Common Wealth - Economics for a Crowded Planet". I started by the chapters about the world population. I am fascinated by this subject and in the past 25 years I read a lot about it. Jeffrey Sachs makes a very balanced account of the main trends. Many times people that write about the planet's population forecast that it will continue to grow at a fast pace for decades to come. Jeffrey Sachs describes the different possible scenarios and their implications. I also fully agree with his view that more incentives for family planning would be to the world's interest. One thing that I had not realized so far is that the key places for the future development of the world population are India (not a surprise) and sub-Saharan Africa. It is very difficult to forecast what may happen there, because the African countries suffer from all plagues that widely impact on the population growth: war, famine and diseases. But the recent interest of China and India for the African countries may help to change it in a near future.

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By the mid of this century the world will be a completely different place compared to what it was when I was born. I realize that I know very little about the two continents where the most important changes will take place. I have never been to Africa and I was in just few Asian countries. There is a lot to be seen and experienced. Hope I can continue to travel around, meet people and report it. I can't think of a more fascinating thing to do!

Take care,

Maurício