Dear friends,
Maybe the secret of life consists in pretending and behaving as if certain things had actually never happened. We just sweep them under the carpet and we've done with them!
Wish you have a nice week!
Maurício
Monday, 21 July 2008
Tuesday, 15 July 2008
TAWOMG - Sleepless in Uppsala
Dear Friends,
When I was a child I used to sleep a lot. I also used to go to bed very early. When I wanted to stay awaken later, it was rather difficult. At that time I was very frustrated with it. When my parents went out at night I usually wanted to wait till they came back home, but never could. I fell asleep long before they arrived. I don't remember when, I don't know why, but one day it all changed: it started become difficult to fall asleep.
* * * * *
When I came to Uppsala the first time, many nights I couldn't sleep well. Summer 1989 was an exceptionally nice and warm one in Scandinavia. Everybody talked about it. The student room where I lodged was very warm. This, combined with the long Scandinavian summer days, was a bad mixture. Quite often I woke up around 03:00 a.m. and just couldn't fall asleep again. That year I had a hired bike. When I couldn't sleep I rode my bike around Uppsala. This is one of the best memories that I have from that summer: the dim northern light, the fresh air, the absence of wind, the deep silence and the empty streets of Uppsala. I was almost glad for being unable to sleep.
* * * * *
During the past four weeks in Uppsala sometimes I had trouble to sleep. However, it was nothing comparable to last night. Maybe it was because during the weekend I spent a lot of time reading the news and some reports about the world economy. I also called a few friends in different countries and asked for their opinion and what to expect next. I must admit that the resulting picture was rather scaring! At night I couldn't help thinking about how the economy is developing this year.
* * * * *
Before coming to Sweden I organised some papers at home. I realized that since 2003 I had collected several articles published by "The Economist" about the house price bubble in America, Britain and other countries. Since 2005 I thought that the Spanish housing market was about to halt. If there is anything surprising about the current economic mess, it actually is that it took that long to happen. However, since last August the storm is building up and it is getting pretty ugly out there. The bad news is that, although some economies have already been hard hit by the crisis, we are still just at the early moments of it. The worst has still to come!
* * * * *
At the end of last year I was convinced that the American economy would fall into recession at the first half of this year. Resilient consumption and growing exports, plus a huge tax stimulus by the American government, made it possible to avoid it. However, considering all the woes of the American economy, recession may well turn to be unavoidable:
- The house prices in he US have fallen by the fastest and greatest pace since depression in the 1930's. The bad news is that there are no indications that they will stop to fall in the near future. As long as house prices decline, there is no way out of the crisis. It could well be that the prices do not stop falling before the end of 2008.
- As conditions worsen, so do default rates in mortgages and foreclosures. This has already led to multibillion losses for the lenders and probably a lot more is to come.
- The building industry is already in recession. As fewer units are sold, the inventory of empty houses on the market grows and makes matters worse. It will be years before the housing industry peaks again. Fewer houses built and sold mean less jobs and also less taxes collected by local governments. This in turn means that they will be able to spend less.
- The banking sector in America is in very bad shape. This week many big banks will publish their results for the second quarter. Nobody is expecting good news. The bad results have already been discounted in the share prices. However, worse than expected news could drive share prices further down.
- Jobs were lost in America every single month since January. The stock exchange is operating in a bearish mood - most stock exchanges around the world fell by more than 20% in the year. How long will consumption be immune to all those bad news? The feeling is that since last month the perspectives have deteriorated substantially. It could well happen that in the next few months consumer good manufacturers start to issue profit warnings, knocking their share prices down. If consumption tumbles, then recession will be around the corner - maybe it is already there!
- High oil and food prices are putting pressure on inflation. As inflation soars central banks will find it difficult to avoid interest rate increases. On the other hand, the credit crush will continue to undermine the economy growth.
* * * * *
America is the biggest world economy. Can the rest of the world decouple from an American recession? Some European economies, like the British, Irish and Spanish are heading straight to it. At best the whole EU economy will be flat for the next year and a half or so. Same applies for Japan. It is very difficult to think that the emerging economies will run into recession, but a slow down cannot be discarded. If it happens the commodity prices may start to fall, impacting all the economies that grew in the past years thanks to high commodity prices and strong demand.
* * * * *
All this seems like the economic version of an Ingmar Bergman's film. You watch it and feel depressed. It could well be that very soon we will be reminded that in capitalism the economic cycle still holds and prosperity cannot last for ever. After years of strong growth, that will not be a nice remind.
Wish you enjoy the week and the remaining months before it gets nasty out there!
Maurício
When I was a child I used to sleep a lot. I also used to go to bed very early. When I wanted to stay awaken later, it was rather difficult. At that time I was very frustrated with it. When my parents went out at night I usually wanted to wait till they came back home, but never could. I fell asleep long before they arrived. I don't remember when, I don't know why, but one day it all changed: it started become difficult to fall asleep.
* * * * *
When I came to Uppsala the first time, many nights I couldn't sleep well. Summer 1989 was an exceptionally nice and warm one in Scandinavia. Everybody talked about it. The student room where I lodged was very warm. This, combined with the long Scandinavian summer days, was a bad mixture. Quite often I woke up around 03:00 a.m. and just couldn't fall asleep again. That year I had a hired bike. When I couldn't sleep I rode my bike around Uppsala. This is one of the best memories that I have from that summer: the dim northern light, the fresh air, the absence of wind, the deep silence and the empty streets of Uppsala. I was almost glad for being unable to sleep.
* * * * *
During the past four weeks in Uppsala sometimes I had trouble to sleep. However, it was nothing comparable to last night. Maybe it was because during the weekend I spent a lot of time reading the news and some reports about the world economy. I also called a few friends in different countries and asked for their opinion and what to expect next. I must admit that the resulting picture was rather scaring! At night I couldn't help thinking about how the economy is developing this year.
* * * * *
Before coming to Sweden I organised some papers at home. I realized that since 2003 I had collected several articles published by "The Economist" about the house price bubble in America, Britain and other countries. Since 2005 I thought that the Spanish housing market was about to halt. If there is anything surprising about the current economic mess, it actually is that it took that long to happen. However, since last August the storm is building up and it is getting pretty ugly out there. The bad news is that, although some economies have already been hard hit by the crisis, we are still just at the early moments of it. The worst has still to come!
* * * * *
At the end of last year I was convinced that the American economy would fall into recession at the first half of this year. Resilient consumption and growing exports, plus a huge tax stimulus by the American government, made it possible to avoid it. However, considering all the woes of the American economy, recession may well turn to be unavoidable:
- The house prices in he US have fallen by the fastest and greatest pace since depression in the 1930's. The bad news is that there are no indications that they will stop to fall in the near future. As long as house prices decline, there is no way out of the crisis. It could well be that the prices do not stop falling before the end of 2008.
- As conditions worsen, so do default rates in mortgages and foreclosures. This has already led to multibillion losses for the lenders and probably a lot more is to come.
- The building industry is already in recession. As fewer units are sold, the inventory of empty houses on the market grows and makes matters worse. It will be years before the housing industry peaks again. Fewer houses built and sold mean less jobs and also less taxes collected by local governments. This in turn means that they will be able to spend less.
- The banking sector in America is in very bad shape. This week many big banks will publish their results for the second quarter. Nobody is expecting good news. The bad results have already been discounted in the share prices. However, worse than expected news could drive share prices further down.
- Jobs were lost in America every single month since January. The stock exchange is operating in a bearish mood - most stock exchanges around the world fell by more than 20% in the year. How long will consumption be immune to all those bad news? The feeling is that since last month the perspectives have deteriorated substantially. It could well happen that in the next few months consumer good manufacturers start to issue profit warnings, knocking their share prices down. If consumption tumbles, then recession will be around the corner - maybe it is already there!
- High oil and food prices are putting pressure on inflation. As inflation soars central banks will find it difficult to avoid interest rate increases. On the other hand, the credit crush will continue to undermine the economy growth.
* * * * *
America is the biggest world economy. Can the rest of the world decouple from an American recession? Some European economies, like the British, Irish and Spanish are heading straight to it. At best the whole EU economy will be flat for the next year and a half or so. Same applies for Japan. It is very difficult to think that the emerging economies will run into recession, but a slow down cannot be discarded. If it happens the commodity prices may start to fall, impacting all the economies that grew in the past years thanks to high commodity prices and strong demand.
* * * * *
All this seems like the economic version of an Ingmar Bergman's film. You watch it and feel depressed. It could well be that very soon we will be reminded that in capitalism the economic cycle still holds and prosperity cannot last for ever. After years of strong growth, that will not be a nice remind.
Wish you enjoy the week and the remaining months before it gets nasty out there!
Maurício
Sunday, 6 July 2008
TAWOMG - Wishing you were somehow here again
Dear Friends,
Last Friday was the last day of the first phase of my Swedish course here in Uppsala. The first group was a very nice one and we had great teachers, Annette and Cecilia. Tomorrow new students are coming in and we start the second and final phase. That means another three weeks in Uppsala. Then I will be on the road again.
* * * * *
Uppsala is a very pleasant place to visit during summer. Those that have seen Ingmar Bergman's film "Fanny and Alexander" may have an idea how the city looks like. Many of the external scenes in that film were shot here.
On the photo beside you can see the house where Fanny and Alexander moved to, when their widow mother married the local bishop. Today it is Upplands Museet.
* * * * *
Ingmar Bergman himself was born in Uppsala 90 years ago (14 July 1918). His father was a priest. Religion is one of the themes present in many of his movies. Maybe his most admired film is "Smultronstället". The literal translation is "Wild Strawberries", which is how the title was translated in all languages that I could check. However "smultronställe" is also an idiomatic expression that means "favourite place", which would be a much better translation to the film's title. In it the favourite place of Prof. Isak Borg is the house where he used to spend vacation during his childhood.
* * * * *
My friends would probably not hesitate to name my "Smultronställe". It is the countryside house that my grandparents had in Águas de Lindóia and where I used to go on vacation when I was a child. Very often I visit it on my dreams, one of those just two days ago. This house was sold in 1976. It is one of my deepest wishes to buy it back one day.
* * * * *
Past times, people and places that populated them, a lost happiness. Somehow in my mind this connected with the great news that came from Colombia this week: a very successful operation, led by the Colombian army, rescued 15 people that had been kidnapped and held hostage by the left wing FARC guerrilla during many years. Among them was Ingrid Betancourt, a former presidential candidate. She was the most important hostage at the hands of the guerrilla. She holds a dual citizenship (Colombian and French). This fact and her family political connections helped to make her case well known around the world. During years the Colombian president, Álvaro Uribe, was under pressure to negotiate with the guerrilla at any price, in order to have Betancourt freed. He was firm in his decision of fighting the guerrilla militarily, weakening them first before entering negotiations. This year his strategy is paying out: the guerrilla has suffered a series of blows, including the death of three of its seven top commanders. The freeing of the 15 hostages this week was the latest and strongest one.
* * * * *
I feel particularly glad to see that this absurd nightmare, the FARC insurgency, may be coming close to its end. It has only caused sorrow to Colombia and its citizens. Colombia is my favourite country in Latin America. Colombians are amongst the nicest people that I have ever crossed. They deserve peace, development and a better future. The end of the conflict would not only be great news for the country itself, but also for the whole Latin America.
* * * * *
I saw on YouTube many videos of Ingrid Betancourt's release. I was touched by the images when she met her mother first and her children the next day. During all these years I have often thought how tough it must have been for all of them. The kidnapping and the long captivity were an endless nightmare for the hostages as well as for their relatives and friends. That is still the case for all those that remain at the hands of the guerrilla. Many times I wondered how difficult it had to be for Ingrid's mother, children and husband. They couldn't know whether she was still alive or not, whether they would see her again or not, and when it would all be over - and how it would end.
* * * * *
"Wishing you were somehow here again
Wishing you were somehow near
Sometimes it seemed if I just dreamed
Somehow you would be here…
Wishing I could hear your voice again
Knowing that I never would (…)
Too many years fighting back tears (…)"
* * * * *
These are lyrics of one of the songs of "The Phantom of the Opera". It is my favourite song in this musical. Certainly many of us have had in our lives beloved people that for whatever reason either left or we lost contact with. The ties were broken or they just went missing. This is why this song talks so deeply to my heart. Each time I listen to it I think of those that I wished were somehow here again. Whoever is in this situation can only think how wonderful it would be to see the beloved person again, to hold him or her in our arms, to hug them again. Sometimes it seems that it would just be the greatest possible happiness. This week the relatives and friends of 15 people could experience this fantastic happiness. The moment that they have longed for just arrived and their dear ones were somehow there again. We should all be glad for them!
Wish you a great week,
Maurício
Last Friday was the last day of the first phase of my Swedish course here in Uppsala. The first group was a very nice one and we had great teachers, Annette and Cecilia. Tomorrow new students are coming in and we start the second and final phase. That means another three weeks in Uppsala. Then I will be on the road again.
* * * * *
Uppsala is a very pleasant place to visit during summer. Those that have seen Ingmar Bergman's film "Fanny and Alexander" may have an idea how the city looks like. Many of the external scenes in that film were shot here.
On the photo beside you can see the house where Fanny and Alexander moved to, when their widow mother married the local bishop. Today it is Upplands Museet.* * * * *
Ingmar Bergman himself was born in Uppsala 90 years ago (14 July 1918). His father was a priest. Religion is one of the themes present in many of his movies. Maybe his most admired film is "Smultronstället". The literal translation is "Wild Strawberries", which is how the title was translated in all languages that I could check. However "smultronställe" is also an idiomatic expression that means "favourite place", which would be a much better translation to the film's title. In it the favourite place of Prof. Isak Borg is the house where he used to spend vacation during his childhood.
* * * * *
My friends would probably not hesitate to name my "Smultronställe". It is the countryside house that my grandparents had in Águas de Lindóia and where I used to go on vacation when I was a child. Very often I visit it on my dreams, one of those just two days ago. This house was sold in 1976. It is one of my deepest wishes to buy it back one day.
* * * * *
Past times, people and places that populated them, a lost happiness. Somehow in my mind this connected with the great news that came from Colombia this week: a very successful operation, led by the Colombian army, rescued 15 people that had been kidnapped and held hostage by the left wing FARC guerrilla during many years. Among them was Ingrid Betancourt, a former presidential candidate. She was the most important hostage at the hands of the guerrilla. She holds a dual citizenship (Colombian and French). This fact and her family political connections helped to make her case well known around the world. During years the Colombian president, Álvaro Uribe, was under pressure to negotiate with the guerrilla at any price, in order to have Betancourt freed. He was firm in his decision of fighting the guerrilla militarily, weakening them first before entering negotiations. This year his strategy is paying out: the guerrilla has suffered a series of blows, including the death of three of its seven top commanders. The freeing of the 15 hostages this week was the latest and strongest one.
* * * * *
I feel particularly glad to see that this absurd nightmare, the FARC insurgency, may be coming close to its end. It has only caused sorrow to Colombia and its citizens. Colombia is my favourite country in Latin America. Colombians are amongst the nicest people that I have ever crossed. They deserve peace, development and a better future. The end of the conflict would not only be great news for the country itself, but also for the whole Latin America.
* * * * *
I saw on YouTube many videos of Ingrid Betancourt's release. I was touched by the images when she met her mother first and her children the next day. During all these years I have often thought how tough it must have been for all of them. The kidnapping and the long captivity were an endless nightmare for the hostages as well as for their relatives and friends. That is still the case for all those that remain at the hands of the guerrilla. Many times I wondered how difficult it had to be for Ingrid's mother, children and husband. They couldn't know whether she was still alive or not, whether they would see her again or not, and when it would all be over - and how it would end.
* * * * *
"Wishing you were somehow here again
Wishing you were somehow near
Sometimes it seemed if I just dreamed
Somehow you would be here…
Wishing I could hear your voice again
Knowing that I never would (…)
Too many years fighting back tears (…)"
* * * * *
These are lyrics of one of the songs of "The Phantom of the Opera". It is my favourite song in this musical. Certainly many of us have had in our lives beloved people that for whatever reason either left or we lost contact with. The ties were broken or they just went missing. This is why this song talks so deeply to my heart. Each time I listen to it I think of those that I wished were somehow here again. Whoever is in this situation can only think how wonderful it would be to see the beloved person again, to hold him or her in our arms, to hug them again. Sometimes it seems that it would just be the greatest possible happiness. This week the relatives and friends of 15 people could experience this fantastic happiness. The moment that they have longed for just arrived and their dear ones were somehow there again. We should all be glad for them!
Wish you a great week,
Maurício
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